Election 2008 Predictions

Posted 11/03/2008 by Sumner in Labels: , , ,
So, the time has come for the final predictions. It's hard to believe that the election is really tomorrow, given the fact that I've been following the race now for more than a year and a half. Never did I think it would ever come. All the waiting has finally come to an end though, which means only one thing. Put your cards on the table and see what happens. While I am feeling fairly confident that I'll win the hand (Obama will defeat McCain), I'm not sure whether it will be by one pair of cards to another or a royal flush to a pair. Here's what I have:

Obama: CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI

McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

If all goes as above, Obama would win the Electoral College 326 to 212. I'll take it a step farther and say that the popular vote margin will be 51.3% to 46.6%. I wish I could give a more substantive explanation as to why I see the numbers coming out this way, but after months of tracking and examining, this is how I see it. Obama is going to win the critical swing states of North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada. McCain will on the other hand capture Florida, and some of the other smaller states running close in the polls such as Montana and North Dakota. Obama will have a strong win, but not the landslide that some have suggested. There will be a mandate for change, and Barack Obama will come out on top.

Now that my national predictions have been set, its time to take a more in-depth look at two states I have been closely tracking over the past two months: South Carolina and Virginia. Let's start with South Carolina, the easier of the two.

South Carolina

John McCain: 54%
Barack Obama: 44%

I would be shocked if John McCain did not win my home state. The only time that South Carolina has voted for a Democrat for president in the past 40 years was Carter in 1976. I don't see this trend changing. That being said, I think that the final count will be closer than it traditionally is. In 2004, the state voted for Bush by a 58-41 margin, a strong significant victory. Let us not forget however that South Carolina was arguably the most important primary victory for Obama, aside from Iowa. Obama won the state with 55 percent of the vote, followed by Clinton at 27 percent. Obama won 80 percent of the African American vote and solidified his place in the primary race. Despite this strong support for Obama (especially among African Americans). Despite the fact that African Americans account for nearly 30% of the population, Obama will not enjoy strong enough support among white voters. Obama will capture victories in certain areas of the state (mainly metropolitan regions such as Charleston and Columbia), but the rural areas (mainly in the upstate) will go overwhelming for McCain.

Furthermore, Lindsay Graham will retain his Senate seat against a weak and relatively conservative contender in Bob Conley. The three highest positions in the states government are all currently held by Republicans (Gov. Mark Sanford, Senator Graham, and Senator Jim DeMint). Nothing in my mind seems to suggest that South Carolinians will experience a Democratic wave and choose to elect Barack Obama. Obama will be forever thankful for what South Carolina did for him in the primaries, but they won't be there on Tuesday.


Virginia

Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 47%

This is a really tough one to call, but signs seem to suggest that Obama is going to capture this critical swing state. While his lead has diminished to some extent over the past couple of weeks (which was as high as 8% at one point), I feel like Obama will be able to hold on and capture this critical early state. With a victory in Virginia, Obama will start the night off strong and drastically improve his chances of an electoral victory. Virginia has recently experienced a Democratic transition. Tim Kaine was elected governor in 2005 and Jim Webb was elected senator in 2006. Furthermore, Mark Warner is up over 25% over his Republican challenger for Senate. While these other elections are not tell-tale of how Virginians will vote for president, they suggest that they are either dissatisfied with Republican candidates or want to elect a Democrat. This may just be the first time in over 40 years that Virginians elect a Democrat for president.

According to the latest Rasumssen polls, Obama is winning every age group in Virginia except for 65 and older. Voters 29 and younger are supporting Obama at nearly 60%. Although Virginia does not have an African American population significantly higher than the country, Obama enjoys support among this demographic of close to 90%. More importantly however is that McCain holds a slim margin of 5% among white voters, who would traditionally be expected to carry strongly for a Republican candidate in the south. These polling numbers collectively suggest that Obama may be able to pull off a slim, hard victory. If voter turnout is high, Obama's chances of winning Virginia greatly increase. When the night is over, the nation will see that Virginia, the purple state, has turned into Virginia, the newest member of the blue states.



4 comment(s) to... “Election 2008 Predictions”

4 comments:

WHayes said...

So who's got a pool going?



PicturesqueMusiq said...
This comment has been removed by the author.


PicturesqueMusiq said...

I've got McCain in 3 recounts due to the hanging chads in North Carolina that were not a factor in 2000.



smartblackboy said...

i have 5 dollars that picturesquemusiq is full of false hopes.




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